Before starting this latest article, I should apologise to you for not writing for a while now. I have been quite busy over the summer but have now finally found some time to sit and give my thoughts on the latest political issues.

Donald f***ing Trump

I remember seeing Trump maybe 5 years ago on the Apprentice USA and thinking two things;

1. He is a shit version of Alan Sugar
2. He has shit hair

Never in my mind did it seem that this man should lead a global superpower as its sole commander in chief. Today we find ourselves in this extraordinary position where he actually has managed to win the Republican candidacy against a range of candidates much more polished and esteemed than him; including Jeb Bush and even the zodiac killer Ted Cruz. The Trump train has picked up speed along the way as a novel method for conducting politics, he offers what I like to call the “everyday option”; appealing or SEEMING to appeal to ordinary citizens is a key way of drumming up support for yourself.

How to win the republican nomination?

[] – Defeat the other candidates running against you

[] – Appeal to Republican Demographics

There are two strands of my thoughts that explain why we find ourselves with Trump as an option for president. Before I begin you’ll probably end up accusing me of slating the Republican party but it’s not true.

Firstly, the way in which the nomination contest is designed

1. Hampered moderate candidates that were more central on the political scale
2. Created a niche for an “outsider candidate” to show he is different

Trump did not have to defeat the mass of other candidates, he simply had to take on the everyday man’s issues and they would defeat themselves. The way in which Trump could have been killed off is if candidates didn’t split the moderate vote, and supported Ted Cruz earlier on in the contest, but their relative mediocrity didn’t allow for this. The rest as they say is history and where we find ourselves today. So that means then he’s completed the first step and is on his way to winning the nomination (yay!)

[✓] – Defeat the other candidates running against you

Secondly another line of argument I will use relies on republican voter demographics and general real issues facing America today. What do you think of when I mention “republican voter”?

• White?
• Middle class?
• Rich?
• Conservative?
• Religious?

The answer probably lies somewhere in there as a collage of all those bullet points more or less. The appeal Trump brings is obvious, he and his policies fit into the issues that demographic feels that it is under attack from. The economy has picked up to some extent recently but the real term income increases are not being felt and so society experiences a collective xenophobia to outsiders; in Nazi Germany for example it was Jewish wealth, now in modern day USA it’s the Mexicans, Blacks and Muslims. Perfect, wow Trump is great; he’s now managed to appeal to the white republican core vote!! In bowling this would probably be a perfect strike.

[✓] – Appeal to Republican Demographics

 

Why can’t Trump win presidential election then?

Politics is never that simple though as David Cameron found out with Brexit, sometimes you get stung on the arse and are proved wrong. Some of you might sense where I am heading now with this. I mentioned earlier about the demographics of the republican party, Trump is like a God for those people and he makes them feel warm inside like a fresh doughnut at a carnival. But the president isn’t there to appeal to just republicans, he must reach out and be a broader attraction to others with different political views. This is why consensual politics election strategies usually outperform all others when it comes to success rate. To appeal to the most amount of people you have to put yourself forward as the most centre-ground candidate (USUALLY).

All republican party candidates have struggled recently with this issue. Potential candidates have to as I previously said distance themselves from the others; the most common way to do this is by shifting as right wing as possible. Candidates try to make themselves appear the “most republican” whilst making seemingly extreme claims on policies they believe in.

The issue is that once you fight off the other challengers you then need to appeal to a wide ranging audience. Trump attacked various groups with his racism throughout 2015/16, he made extraordinary claims such as wanting to deport all illegal migrants. Defamatory comments against Mexicans and also accusations that Muslims were not consistent with the American ideals means that now he, like other republican presidential candidates before him needs a huge momentum shift to command the centre of politics once again. The republican party always struggles with this, during nominations they go as right wing as they can, which then makes it impossible to claw their way back to the centre. The democrats have been winning because of this reason.

In the past this occurrence has been less impactful because traditionally minority groups in America like Blacks and Latinos have not actually bothered to vote, so the white vote remained supreme. But in consequent elections we see a rise in minority voting- with the majority of those supporting the democrats it means the republican shortcomings are highlighted to the max. In conclusion what I am about to say will probably bite me on the arse later on, and I’ll be proved wrong like so many commentators were with Brexit. My theory leads me to say that Trump will not win the presidential elections unless of course something catastrophic happens like New York is attacked by Godzilla. So we have a situation where (if she manages to stay alive from her pneumonia) Hillary Clinton is likely to become President of the USA. I don’t think anyone really likes her, she would be the biggest “meh” moment in US history. But the Democrat machine will probably dress it up as a win for the left, the poor and women everywhere.

I’m not sure this is quite the case though, she is the better worse option. Make of it what you will. 

This post has been quite short as I am trying to write another one soon on the aftermath of Brexit.

Thanks & let me hear your opinion!